강력해서 불길한 중국수출 china export 20181109
https://runmoneyrun.blogspot.com/2018/11/china-export-20181109.html
미국이 중국에 25%의 관세를 대부분의 품목에 부과하면 어떤 일이 벌어질까?
ism pmi의 보도자료에 미국 기업들의 관세에 대한 반응을 알 수 있는 내용들이 실려있다.
올해 들어 관세에 대한 언급이 증가해서 최근 몇개월간 반 이상은 관세 얘기를 하고 있다.
중국의 수출이 증가하는 것이 중국의 밀어내기(front-loading)때문이라는 표현을 쓰지만, 내가 보기에는 미국의 사재기 요소도 무시할 수 없다.
미국, 중국뿐 아니라 다른 나라의 기업들도 대응하고 있을 것으로 본다.
아래에 최근까지 4개월치의 인터뷰 내용을 따왔다.
최근 몇개의 관세 언급 부분에 나의 발번역을 달았으니, 다른 번역이 필요하면 구글이나 네이버를 이용하기 바란다.
요약하면 미국 기업들도 트럼프의 관세 부과에 대응하기 위해 몇 개월전부터 미칠 지경이었다는 것이다.
관세 올리기 전에 원료를 싸게 수입하려고 세관, 해운사에 난리가 났다.
이런 저런 비용들이 상품가격에 전가되고 있고, 비용 상승 인플레이션이 이미 발생하고 있다.
이러니 최근 중국의 수출 증가가 정상적으로 보일 수가 없다.
가격 상승이 예견되면 상품, 주식, 부동산 어떤 것에든 투기수요, 가수요가 발생하고 그렇게 발생한 호황은 댓가를 치르게 된다.
tarrifs 관세는 진하게 강조.
10월
“All electronic components are having shortages and much longer lead times that impact our production.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
“Tariffs are causing inflation: increased costs of imports, increased cost of freight and increased domestic costs from suppliers who import.” (Chemical Products)
관세가 인플레이션을 일으키고 있다.
수입비용증가, 운임증가, 수입공급자의 국내비용증가
“Protein prices continue under pressure from heavy U.S. supplies and export concerns related to trade tariffs. Higher costs related to trade tariffs are starting to be passed on to the cost of goods sold.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
단백질 가격이 무역관세와 관련된 대량의 미국공급과 수출 우려의 압력을 받고 있다. 관세관련한 높아진 비용은 판매상품비용에 전가되기 시작하고 있다.
“While order intake remains steady, the pace has slowed since the first half the year. Instead of growing, the backlog is declining. We were processing orders at a high level; now they are at the point of status quo from late 2017. We are not concerned yet, but there is certainly trepidation about the future.” (Machinery)
“NAFTA 2.0/USMCA does nothing to help our company, as it does not address Section 232 tariffs.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
북미무역협정은 우리한테 도움이 안된는데, 그건 232 항 관세를 언급하지 않기 때문이다.
“We continue to run at full capacity. I continue to see pricing pressures and longer lead times in most commodities.” (Primary Metals)
“Mounting pressure due to pending tariffs. Bracing for delays in material from China — a rush of orders trying to race tariff implementation is flooding shipping and customs.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
임박한 관세때문에 압력이 높아지고 있다. 중국으로부터 원료지연에 대비하는 중 - 관세부과보다 빨리 하려는 급한 주문들이 해운사와 세관에 쏟아지고 있다.
“Demand is high, and the supply chains are stressed.” (Transportation Equipment)
“Orders and shipments are strong right now. Backlog for Q4 and next year are way down. Savvy customers are asking us to hold pricing on blanket orders, but material suppliers will only hold prices for a few days, which puts us in a bad spot. We'll be spending as much as possible on capital improvements before the end of the year.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
“Steel tariffs continue to negatively affect our cost, even though we utilize U.S. sources for steel. Oil prices put meaningful upward pressure on cost. Continued tightness with truck drivers is expected.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
철강 관세는 비용에 부정적인 영향을 계속해서 주고 있다.
“The market is in a state of chaos with the latest round of tariffs. As an electronics original equipment manufacturer, our component prices have been impacted almost across the board. The tariffs have caused a mass rush to buy up inventories of affected products in order to minimize the long-term financial impact. This, in turn, is causing market constraints, which further drive up the cost and increase lead times.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
시장은 관세때문에 카오스 상태이다.
관세는 장기적인 재무충격을 최소화하기위해 (원료를 싸게 사려고) 영향을 받는 상품의 재고를 쌓기 위해 대량매입을 발생시켰다. 이것은 결국 시장을 제약하고, 비용과 리드 타임을 증가 시키고 있다.
“Tariffs starting to take a bite out of profitability.” (Chemical Products)
관세때문에 이익이 줄기 시작했다.
“Business is strong and relatively stable. Tariffs are putting pressure on Chinese imports. Labor rates are increasing as it is very difficult to find help.” (Furniture & Related Products)
“The economy's strength is holding [and] outlook for the industry is positive, although continuing margin compression in consumer packaged goods is restricting general growth momentum from the greater economy.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
“Still extremely strong through November; starting to see a decline for steel prices for December.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
“General available capacity at suppliers continues to decrease, creating supply issues.” (Machinery)
“Tariffs are creating a drag on some of our export opportunities.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
“Sourcing hourly workers for remote locations continues to be a challenge for both full-time and part-time opportunities. Have implemented a wide variety of recruiting techniques and suppliers to aid us in sourcing this hard-to-find talent.” (Paper Products)
"Orders are coming in, but from a limited number of customers. The future looks very promising.” (Primary Metals)
“Suppliers are impacted by China tariffs, [which is] delaying or cancelling manufacturing transfer projects.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
8월
“Busy for new orders, but the cost of raw material chemicals keeps going up.” (Chemical Products)
“Busy for new orders, but the cost of raw material chemicals keeps going up.” (Chemical Products)
“We have seen a slight uptick in international business. Suppliers do not seem to know how to handle the recently imposed tariffs. Most are waiting to re-evaluate potential price increases until September.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
“Generally high levels of demand continue, and [we are] planning for this elevated rate through the rest of the year.” (Transportation Equipment)
“Suppliers appear to be bracing us for cost increases, given increased talk of tariffs and inflation. We are budgeting for 2019 accordingly.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
“The toughest thing we deal with is the unknown. Dealing with tariffs on steel purchases and not knowing if or when they will end makes planning difficult. We are entering the period when we begin our pricing negotiations for next year and will likely treat the tariffs as if they will be here for the entire year. It’s challenging, but not insurmountable.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
“Business is positive, new equipment sales and inquiries are strong, and the parts business is strong. Raw material costs, especially steel, appear to be leveling off. Cost of manufactured components has also leveled off. Most suppliers are willing and able to suppress cost increases. Tariff impacts are still a concern.” (Machinery)
“Business continues to be strong. We anticipate growth in the next few months.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
"Business conditions are strong. Orders are up. Purchase prices are up. Unemployment is down.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
"Continued strong demand has most locations in a sold-out market, putting pressure on our facilities to produce and have strong uptime. Purchasing is under pressure to provide critical parts in a market where lead times have increased.” (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)
“Steel tariffs and their threats are putting upward pressure on downstream materials.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)
7월
“Global demand is still strong. Working on contingency plans for the Chinese tariffs. We will probably onshore most of that material. Labor availability is becoming an issue.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
“As a result of new tariffs on materials to/from China, we are taking measures to move impacted materials ahead of effective dates, which in some cases is resulting in holding higher inventories.” (Chemical Products)
“Steel cost increases are causing a lot of negotiations. The increases are real and will affect costs beginning in the third quarter of 2018.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
“Reviewing the business case for importing manufactured parts from China, as new tariffs will lead to increased costs that we will pass along to our domestic customers.” (Transportation Equipment)
“Corn and soybean meal costs are reducing. Labor continues to be a struggle to fill open positions.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
“The steel tariffs are a concern to us. We have already seen steel prices increase due to the threat of the tariffs and are seeing kickback from our customers due to the higher prices. We are concerned that the end customer will go to off shore to purchase the finished product.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
“Business is moving along at a brisk pace, outperforming the annual plan year-to-date (calendar year financials). However, internationally, nationally and locally, we are finding many manufacturers behind schedule due to capacity constraints. They are stating their order intake is heavy and/or they cannot find qualified employees to get all the work done.” (Machinery)
“Tariffs are [resulting in] customs inspection-time increases on imported raw materials from China. Logistics seems to be improving, but we are seeing a [continuing] tight chemical bulk tanker market.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)
"Our customer demand is high, but supply of aluminum is tight. Also, tariffs are negatively affecting our bottom line, as we are unable to pass increases to all of our customers. Plus, we are seeing increases in our construction costs because of the steel price increases. Labor market is extremely tight for professional personnel, plant technicians and support associates.” (Primary Metals)
“The so-called trade war is now taking its toll on business activity, resulting in substantial reductions to new export orders. China has all but stopped taking orders, causing inventories to build up in the U.S. Domestic business is steady. However, it is too small to carry the load that export markets have retreated from. As a result, we will be meeting as a corporation next week to recast our second-half sales and revenue projections.” (Wood Products)