Dwelling Prices and Household Income - rba

http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2012/dec/2.html

Conclusion

This article has analysed trends in dwelling prices over the past four decades using price-to-income ratios. The appropriate price-to-income ratio to use depends somewhat on the economic question being analysed, although those considered here all show broadly similar trends, albeit with differences in levels. In particular, price-to-income ratios in Australia were relatively stable over the early to mid 1980s before rising over the late 1980s, the 1990s and the early 2000s. From the mid 2000s, price-to-income ratios have fallen a little. The earlier rises corresponded with a period of financial deregulation and falling nominal interest rates, both of which increased households' borrowing capacity. It appears that households used this extra borrowing capacity to bid up dwelling prices, which is perhaps not surprising given the earlier period of financial regulation and the fact that households appear to be prepared to spend proportionally more on housing as their incomes rise.

Comparing similarly defined price-to-income ratios across countries, the price-to-income ratio in Australia appears to be broadly in line with those of other advanced economies, although substantially higher than the ratio in the United States or Japan, both of which appear to have unusually low ratios.

주택가격과 소득의 비율.
호주 중앙은행이 40년간의 데이타를 분석한 2012년 12월의 자료.

집값과 소득의 비율은 대부분의 나라에서 비슷한 트렌드를 보인다.
이 중 미국, 일본은 유난히 낮다.
금융규제가 완화되고 금리가 낮아지면서 가계가 추가대출여력을 집값 올리는데 썼다.

많은 나라에서 하락 트렌드가 시작되었거나, 상당히 진행되었다.
실질 주택가격, 월세와의 비율까지 고려하면 갈 길이 매우 멀다.
미국, 일본이 예외인지 아닌지는 아직 판단하기 이르다.
싸이클의 국면이 다를 가능성이 더 높다.