qingdao, collateral, copper, alumina etc

http://online.wsj.com/articles/banks-cut-credit-to-chinese-metals-traders-1402316411

http://online.wsj.com/articles/bankers-focus-on-commodities-trading-firm-in-search-for-metals-used-as-collateral-1402417437

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/06/05/financial-graphics-idINL6N0OM1XG20140605

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-18/citic-resources-can-t-locate-all-its-metals-held-at-qingdao-port.html



http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/06/11/lenders-fear-spread-of-chinese-commodities-fraud-case/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

"Loan collateral was the underlying problem in the Mexican fraud involving a Citigroup subsidiary, Banamex. In that case, the bank discovered that as much as $400 million of assets pledged to Citigroup did not exist."멕시코에서 발생했던 비슷한 일은 4억달러짜리 사기였다.


사기대출 의혹에 中 보관 금속, 韓·臺로 이동 조짐
http://news.einfomax.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=109750

中 칭다오항 원자재 사기대출 파문 확산 주시
http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=101&oid=277&aid=0003269479

단기적으로는 트레이더와 은행들이 담보로 잡고 대출을 주고 받던 물건이 사라졌으니, 원자재든 관련 주식이든 투매를 피할 수 없지만, 가공의 담보, 가공의 재고는 빨리 사라져야 숫자로만 보이던 과잉 재고 문제도 빨리 해결된다.

구리, 알루미늄, 철광석, 철근, 구리, 고무, 면화 등 담보가 될 수 있는 것이라면 어떤 원자재도 비슷한 사기대출이 발생했을 가능성을 배제할 수 없을 것이고, 기왕에 투매가 나온 것이라면 리스크를 일부 반영했을 것으로 볼 수 있다.

삼성전자 국채, 은행채 매수

Samsung Taps Its $60 Billion Cash Pile To Become A Major Player In South Korea's Bond Market

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-samsung-electronics-juggling-60-bln-in-cash-bulks-up-on-bonds-2014-16


은행들, 삼성전자에서 돈 빌린다

http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=004&oid=112&aid=0002592068


삼성 수출 감당 못하는 은행들

http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=101&oid=015&aid=0003102576


[이슈 인사이트] 순익 늘어도 ‘짠돌이’ 배당하는 한국 기업

http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=101&oid=050&aid=0000033583



[마켓인사이트] 삼성전자, 국고채·은행채 대거 사들여

http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=101&oid=015&aid=0003089491



"국채시장 거대 자금 유입…현금부자 삼성전자 추정"

http://news.einfomax.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=107893

us cpi, chain reaction

http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2014/05/cpi-tips-spread-treasury-yield-fear.html
http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2014/06/cpippi-vs-cape.html

http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2014/06/jobs-fred-series.html
http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2014/06/us-labor-market-james-bullard.html

us cpi가 2.1%로 발표되었다.
올라갔으니 디플레이션 우려는 일단 잠잠해지겠지만, 금리 상승에 대한 우려가 커질  것이다.

연준이 고용지표를 가지고 무슨 일을 벌일지 알 수 없으나, 기준금리는 언제가 되든 올라간다.
영국에 이어 미국도 머지 않았다.
금리인상을 원치 않는 사람들이 많은 듯하나 후반전을 원하면 피할 수 없다.

미국 금리가 올라가면 전세계 모든 자산이 움직인다.
엔화, 유로화, 니케이도 움직일 것이다.
최근 많이 답답했는지 엔화와 니케이의 디커플링을 바라는 사람들이 있었지만, 만약 엔화가 약세로 가면 리커플링을 바라게 될 것이다.

어떤 금리가 움직일 것인가? 당장은 2년 이상 10년 이하.
http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2014/06/a-bizarre-spread-from-us-treasury.html

한국은? 미국과 비슷할지 내일 보자.

The best way to predict the future - bbc

via
http://newspeppermint.com/2014/06/16/prediction/

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140612-the-best-way-to-see-the-future


super-forecaster가 존재할 수 있다.
super-recognisers, super-tasters, super memorisers가 존재하는 것은 확인되었고, 유전적일 수 있다.
그러나 예측 능력은 이론적으로는 경험과 학습된 기술에 기반할 것이다.

1
이 사람들이 공유하는 특성은 open-mindedness이다.
불확실성을 얼마나 잘 다루는지(how well you deal with uncertainty)를 반영한다.

문제를 모든 측면에서 본다.
새로운 증거에 따라 선입견을 극복한다.
마음을 빠르게 자주 바꿀 필요가 있다.


2
다른 특성은 self-awareness이다. 자신의 단점을 이해하는 것이다.

문제의 'inside view'를 취하는 것에서 시작한다.

한 발 물러나서 과거의 역사적 데이타를 들여다본다.

알려진 인지적 편의를 낮춘다.
테러같은 무서운 사건의 리스크가 과장되는 경향 등을 극복할 수 있다.

최선, 최악의 시나리오를 고려한다.
모든 가능성을 고려해서 사건에 대한 기본 가정에 의문을 제기하도록 한다.



--------------------------

위의 설명에 따르면 경제학자들의 예측은 틀릴 수 밖에 없다.

학자라는 자들은 자신들의 이론을 최대한 많은 상황에 적용시키려고 한다.
자신들이 이해했다고 생각했던 과거의 이론이 설명할 수 없는 세상에 대한 두려움을 떨쳐버리지 못한다.
대개 늙은 학자들은 학습능력이 떨어져서 새로운 이론을 만들기도 어렵고, 이해하기도 어렵다.

그들은 관련된 모든 자료를 보려고 하지 않고, 자신의 가설에 부합되는 자료를 모으려고 한다.
그들의 가설에 부합되지 않는 자료는 숨기거나, 부정하거나, 무시하거나, 훼손한다.

그들의 시나리오를 마지막까지 고집하고 예측과 다른 결과에 대해 관련자들의 개입, 무지, 부도덕성을 비난해서 이론의 무결성을 버리지 않으려 한다.

그들의 이론과 예측은 무결하나, 현실이 왜곡되고 틀어졌다.
무지몽매한 사람들이 선지자들의 예측을 무시한 댓가를 치르고 있는 것이다.

minebea, led blu

fig: google finance



http://www.minebea.co.jp/english/investors/disclosure/presentation/p2014/__icsFiles/afieldfile/2014/05/09/e2014_presentation_en.pdf#page=001

Minebea (6479.JP, OW, covered by Masashi Itaya)
We forecast Apple’s share of sales at 14% for FY14 and 16% for FY15. Three
companies (Minebea e-LITECOM, Omron) have supplied LED backlights for the
iPhone, but we expect Minebea’s share to increase as products become thinner. We
forecast Minebea’s share to rise to 70% in FY2014, and think further upside is also
possible. Moreover, although we do not factor this into our current estimates, we see
potential new business opportunities for the company if LED backlights for the
iPhone also become thinner.

- JPM  14/05/21

http://www.minebea.co.jp/product/electronic/1182007_3826.html

http://www.e-litecom.com/


https://www.minebea.co.jp/english/investors/disclosure/presentation/p2014/p2014_qa02/index.html#link_1

Question and Answer

You said that you will boost production capacity for LED backlights. How much do you plan to invest?

We are going to make an urgent investment roughly totaling 4 billion yen to meet increasing orders for next year. Since construction will be completed between the end of this fiscal year and early next fiscal year, this amount will be posted as a capital expenditure for next fiscal year. Boosting production capacity will enable us to respond to 100 billion yen in sales starting next year.

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Are you going to aggressively market your LED backlights for tablet PCs as well as smartphones?

Like smartphones, high-end tablet PC models are getting thinner and thinner. That gives us an advantage that we will actively leverage in order to drive sales up.

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You said that LED backlight sales will increase by 20 billion yen next year. Which one of these factors will have the biggest impact, (1) the growing LED backlight market, (2) Minebea products' increasing market share, or (3) an increasing share of new markets like tablet PCs?

All three of these factors will affect our top line and bring sales up by 20 billion yen next year.

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I understand that the operating margin target for LED backlights ranges between 5 and 10%. What will it be when sales climb that high? Also, are you going to work on special measures, like in-house production, etc., to beef up your operating margin? If so, what are they?

While we project sales will rise 20 billion yen to total 80 billion yen next year, our in-house target is 100 billion yen. If sales increase that much, the capacity utilization will naturally increase and so will the operating margin. What matters most is our technological edge, which we should be able to maintain for the next two years or so.

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You said that LED backlights are being made increasingly thinner and more lightweight. If you want to reduce the thickness and weight of displays, organic LED displays seem to offer a greater advantage than liquid crystal displays (LCDs) that use LEDs. What do you think of the risk of LCDs being replaced by organic LED displays someday?

We take the risk seriously and are studying the situation. At the moment, we view the risk of that scenario coming to fruition over the next few years to be very minimal. A number of problems have been pointed out with organic LED, including low production yield, high production cost, large power consumption, low visibility under sunlight, etc. That's why we don't think organic LED will replace LCDs overnight. We're not basing our assumption on promises from our customers. We have a large share of the market for high quality products. That gives us a chance to work with customers on developing new products, so we can see firsthand where the trends for upcoming 

You mentioned earlier that, in light of the latest information, demand for LED backlights would not fall as much as you had expected although you had made your performance forecast for the January - March period on the assumption that demand would drop. Would you elaborate on that?

While we had expected that demand would drop due to seasonal factors, it doesn't look like it's going to fall when we look at it in light of the unofficial orders we've gotten from our customers. That's one reason. Another is the expanding customer base and increasing number of models we supply which will offset fluctuations in demand. Given that, we don't believe the shipment volume will fall as much as we originally expected.

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You expect that LED backlight sales will soar next fiscal year. How will the sales composition by major customer and product change?

I can't tell you anything until we've had a chance to look at the details of next fiscal year's sales forecast with our business units.

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I'm very interested in the LED lighting and measuring components that are included in your Five Arrows strategy. Can you tell us how they stack up against the competition in the global market and what the future holds for them?

When it comes to measuring components, we don't have any competitors in the global arena. Our foundation is built on gauges. While there are some manufacturers of strain gauges in Europe and China, nobody has the extensive technological capability or global reach that we have. That puts us squarely ahead of the pack. The LED lighting market on the other hand is quite competitive. It's a big market with lots of manufacturers. Each country has its own market. We are looking to supply lighting device manufacturers with packaged solutions combining various technologies like our light guide plates, circuits, motors, etc. The strategy is already at work in the Chinese market where we have made inroads with products that have earned high marks from local governments as well as lighting manufacturers.

https://www.minebea.co.jp/english/investors/disclosure/presentation/p2014/p2014_qa04/index.html

Now that demand for LED backlights is so strong, how far can sales climb given your production capacity?

We can generate 100 billion yen in sales annually with our current production capacity. We decided to make an urgent capital investment totaling 3.2 billion yen this fiscal year. In order to increase sales, we must clear some hurdles that we cannot overcome all by ourselves, like securing parts from external suppliers, so that's going to be a challenge. That's why, to tell you the truth, I don't want to give you any specific figures.

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Is there any possibility that the big orders you're currently getting for LED backlights may be due to anticipatory demand?

Last year we received orders far exceeding our initial projection. Mobile phone companies in China and South Korea are now aggressively advertising their products. All these advertisements are for ultra-slim products. You can't hear the sound of 1.3 billion people waking up unless you actually go where they are. We've gone around the world to see for ourselves how well LED backlights are selling, and the orders coming from China seem to reflect a real demand. We want to have the kind of production capacity that will enable us to meet customers' needs as much as possible.

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I think it would be great if your high-end LED backlights, which enjoy a whopping 70% share of the market, were more widely used. What is your current plan for keeping sales up once they become mainstream so they don't turn into just another common product?

I've talked about demand growth only in the smartphone market, but our lighting technology is also appreciated in other markets including thin tablets, automobiles, and more. Although it's true that we cannot tell what things will be like five years from now, our strategy is to leverage our technological capability in the areas that we specialize in. That will enable us to enter the LED lighting market for smart cities and smart buildings and keep sales and profitability up. LED backlights and LED lighting for smart cities and smart buildings are all handled by our Lighting Device Business Unit. We regard them as the same in the sense that we are taking the lighting technology in our hands and making it our own.

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Why is the increase in projected depreciation cost totaling 26.2 billion yen for the fiscal year ending March 2015 larger than the projected capital expenditure total of 21.5 billion yen?

It's because we now depreciate some of our general-purpose production lines over a two-year period using the accelerated depreciation method and recognize them as taxable expenses in addition to depreciating dedicated equipment for LED backlight production over a period of two years as we always have. The increase due to this change will come to about 0.7 billion yen for this fiscal year.

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I would like to ask you about the fourth quarter operating income figures. What was the total for the temporary expenses you had expected to incur during the fourth quarter, which you mentioned at the February investor meeting?

Temporary expenses totaled about 0.4 billion yen for disposal of surplus materials used in motor, LED backlight and measuring component production. Other expenses were accounted for as an extraordinary loss.

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You project LED backlight sales to total 80 billion yen this fiscal year. Can you give us the projected sales figures for each quarter so I can see how sales will pick up in the first two quarters? Also, how do you expect profitability will change from the last fiscal year? How will the ratio of sales to Chinese manufacturers change?

The figures announced this fiscal year include 16.6 billion yen for the first quarter, 24.0 billion yen for the second quarter, 23.0 billion yen for the third quarter, and 17.0 billion yen for the fourth quarter, for 80.6 billion yen in total. Sales to Chinese customers remained steady from January to March 2014, which was the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year, and did not fall as much as we had expected. We can expect sales for this first quarter to far exceed our forecast. Our operating margin will be affected by depreciation costs this fiscal year since, as I mentioned earlier, we changed the depreciation period from 10 years to 2 years for some assets. That's why we don't expect to have a high operating margin this first quarter, but it should edge up toward the double digits in the second quarter when sales are expected to take off.
I cannot provide you with the percentage ratio of sales to Chinese customers at this time.

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What's the forecast for sales of turbocharger bearing units in your new medium-term business plan?

Sales will total 1.0 billion yen this fiscal year and 2.0 billion yen next fiscal year. Although our previously announced forecast was 5.0 billion yen, we changed our projection due to the status of customer sales. Sales should rise substantially in the subsequent fiscal year.

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Can you tell us how your initiatives to boost production capacity for LED backlights in China and Cambodia are moving along as well as the risks involved?

Our local staff is working really hard right now. Unfortunately we were unable to reach the production volumes that could fully satisfy customer needs last month. Still I can say we are making steady progress. If we can hold the line and consequently bring sales up to 100 billion yen, things should all work out in the end.

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Don't you think you can expect to see more growth in rod-end bearing sales given the current volume of commercial aircraft orders going to Airbus and Boeing?

We are all aware of the current situation and are now discussing how we can create synergy while trying to overcome hurdles within the organization. It will be a while before we see those efforts pay off in quantitative terms. This is an area we still need to work on, and we are going to put more effort into it.

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Has your motor business become a steady profit generator? What has changed since the previous fiscal year?

Last fiscal year, we saw more than 10 billion yen year on year improvement in motors. We gradually succeeded in getting a share of some niche markets. Since our market share has increased for products used in some specific applications, profit vulnerability has declined. On top of that, our customers in the automobile and office automation equipment industries saw demand recover thanks to upward market trends. We expect the business to remain somewhat upbeat.

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What was the operating margin for the machined components business segment in the fiscal year that ended March 2014? Do you expect to see any positive factors that will expand the operating margin this fiscal year other than growing sales?

Despite the fact that our operating margin rose to 26.0% in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal year, the operating margin for this fiscal year is projected to be 24.1%. That may seem strange but that's what we project. Since both production and sales volumes are upbeat in the first quarter, the operating margin should exceed our forecast if things continue to go as they are now. The operating margin for ball bearings is the highest, followed by pivot assemblies and rod-end fasteners at the moment.

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Given the supply-demand balance, isn't it only natural that there be a difference in the operating margin when LED backlight sales total 80 billion yen and by the time they reach 100 billion yen?

Since we're a parts manufacturer, we've never raised our sales prices just because we were busy. We want to supply cutting-edge products to a host of customers, but the terms and conditions are different for customers who buy large quantities and those who don't because that's how the economy works. Although there are limitations to the injecting molding technology when making thinner products, we should be finished with depreciation of manufacturing equipment by that point.

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What's your policy for buying back your own shares? What were the terms and conditions for repurchasing your own shares in the past and what is your buyback strategy now?

When we bought back our shares in the past, we did that because our share price was abnormally low. Ensuring growth is our priority now, and to that end we are always looking into M&A opportunities as well. Under the current circumstances, we see there are things other than buying back our own shares that we should give higher priority to.

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You mentioned that there was a temporary cost increase of 0.4 billion yen in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year. Excluding that one-off factor, do you expect profits to decline in any business segments this first quarter compared with the last fourth quarter?

I don't think so as long as things keep moving at the current pace.

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Operating income for the machined components business segment rose significantly in the fourth quarter. Were there any special reasons for that?

There were no special factors behind the increase.

매실이 대세

매실 엑기스라는 것을 들어 본 것이 10년이 넘지 않는다.
그러더니 어느새 한국음식이라면 안 들어가는 데가 거의 없어지고 있다.

매실을 담그는 집이 많아지고 있고, 마트에서 파는 매실담그는 병 사이즈가 커지고 있다고 한다.
건너건너 아는 시골할머니께서는 심어놓은 매실나무에서 매실이 너무 열려서 처치 곤란이라고 한다.
매실값이 너무 싸서 문제라는 얘기도 들린다.


망고, 블루베리, 체리같은 것도 몇년 사이 흔히 볼 수 있게 되었다.
몇년 전에는 동네 마트에는 없고 백화점에나 가야 볼 수 있었다.

그렇기는 하나 지금 대세는 매실이다.
조만간 쇠고기, 돼지고기 파동처럼 매실 파동이 생겨도 전혀 이상하지 않을 듯하다.

출하량, 재고, 가격을 확인해보면 무슨 일이 벌어지는지 알수 있겠지만, 구글 트렌드만 보고도 대충 짐작은 간다.

지하철에서 음식 먹기

http://womenwhoeatontubes.tumblr.com/

英 지하철서 음식 먹는 여성 몰래 찍은 사진 SNS 공개 논란
http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=104&oid=112&aid=0002554100


中 '지하철 밥 먹기'에 벌금…어느 정도 이길래
http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=104&oid=055&aid=0000280166


중국 지하철 취식 금지 법제화 곳곳서 논란
http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=100&oid=001&aid=0006920095


대만 지하철! 음식물 섭취금지!
http://www.anewsa.com/detail.php?number=583592&thread=01r02


'아빠 어디가' 김성주, 홍콩 지하철서 빵 먹다 쫓겨나
http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=103&oid=034&aid=0002648831

중국은 지하철에서 음식을 먹는 것이 민폐라는 것을 알기는 아는 모양이다.

-----------

추가

If You Must Eat On The Subway, This Is How It's Done

(Georgette Cline)

http://gothamist.com/2014/03/21/masterful_subway_eating.php#.





http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2551643/Let-eat-Chanel-The-hilarious-moment-NYC-Subway-passengers-model-devouring-designer-handbag.html