Tuesday, October 21, 2014

berkshire hathaway portfolio




fig

웰스파고, 아멕스, 코카콜라, IBM이 버크셔 주식 포트폴리오 100조 중의 60%에 해당한다.
버크셔의 시가총액은 약 340조.

ibm에 이어 코카콜라의 실적이 기대에 미치지 못했고, 주가의 급락이 발생하고 있지만, 버크셔는 별 영향을 받지 않고 있다.
신기한 일이다. 추적해 볼 가치가 있다.


http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2014/10/ibm-and-tree-with-deep-roots.html


http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/2ndqtr14.pdf

As of June 30, 2014, approximately 58% of the aggregate fair value was concentrated in the equity securities of four companies
(American Express Company – $14.4 billion; Wells Fargo & Company – $25.4 billion; International Business Machines Corporation – $12.7 billion; and The Coca-Cola Company – $16.9 billion).



http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=brk

Stock% of portfolioSharesRecent activityReported Price*
histWFC - Wells Fargo22.64463,458,123$52.56
histKO - Coca Cola Co.15.75400,000,000$42.36
histAXP - American Express13.37151,610,700$94.87
histIBM - International Bus. Machines11.8270,173,978Add 2.66%$181.27
histWMT - Wal-Mart Stores4.1058,797,259Add 1.28%$75.07




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Berkshire_Hathaway

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22130601

http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett

murata, china, japan


fanuc, china, japan
murata, china, japan
tdk, china, japan


http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2014/09/fanuc.html

http://online.wsj.com/articles/chinese-smartphones-lift-japans-electronics-business-1413827482

http://www.global.tdk.com/ir/financial_information/region/

http://www.murata.com/en-global/about/ir/financial
















petrobras, scheme



Jim Chanos Says Petrobras is a ‘Scheme, Not a Stock’ [FULL TRANSCRIPT]

http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/10/jim-chanos-says-petrobras-is-a-scheme-not-a-stock/

"The problem is is that in fact the company is cash flowing about $25 billion, $26 billion, so-called EBITDA, and its CapEx annually is $45 billion, and another $5 billion of capitalized interest. So their – their gross cash flow is only covering half of their capital spending and capitalized interest, so they’re not covering their dividend. And in fact they’re having to borrow the shortfall, and they’re borrowing more than $20 billion a year. This is an enormous, enormous sink hole from a financial point of view."









Brazil’s Rousseff Admits There Was Wrongdoing at Petrobras

"Ms. Rousseff and the PT have repeatedly said that the accusations against Petrobras are baseless and that her administration never condoned corruption."


On Brazil's Struggling Petrobras, Barclays Becomes A Believer


sunedison, polysilicon cash cost $6


http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2014/10/oil-marginal-cost.html

http://www.ebn.co.kr/news/view/694669

"폴리실리콘은 총 원가의 25%가 프로세싱 비용, 22% 정도는 전기료가 차지하는데..."





선에디슨의 설비는 현금 원가가 6달러 수준일 것으로 예상한다고.



http://www.businessinsider.com/david-einhorn-pitches-sunedison-2014-10

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-17/sunedison-rises-as-cowen-upgrades-undervalued-shares.html

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/10/20/solar-energy/sunedison-ponders-2b-polysilicon-plant-supply-approaching-85gw

"SunEdison’s President Ahmad Chatila said the cash cost will be less than $6 a kilogram, $2 below the nearest competitor. The market price for solar-grade polysilicon is currently trading at close $20 per kilogram."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/sunedison-in-talks-for-2-billion-china-polysilicon-plant.html


http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/polysilicon-2015-2018

Polysilicon capacity expansions to pick up speed in 2015


한화케미칼, 내년 하반기까지 폴리실리콘 1만5000톤으로 확대
http://www.asiatoday.co.kr/view.php?key=20141020010011855

"20일 한화케미칼에 따르면 여수 폴리실리콘 생산능력이 내년 1분기 3000톤 늘어난다. 또 2분기 이후에는 ‘디보틀네킹(병목구간을 없애 생산효율을 높이는 것)’ 방식을 통해 2000톤이 추가 확대된다."



ibm and 'Tree with Deep Roots'



http://seekingalpha.com/article/2530165-the-investment-contest-of-the-century-warren-buffett-and-the-stock-market-go-toe-to-toe-over-ibm

"... there is an amazing Korean drama called "Tree with Deep Roots." It is the story of one leader's journey to take his country forward and the obstacles he faced.

I love learning from other cultures. We have the saying in the U.S., "You can't see the forest for the trees." In this drama, the leader goes to visit his people and finds them sick of disease. He is distraught. When he gets back to his palace his counselors attempt to console him telling him how much Korea has improved under his regime, more money for the nobility, etc..

He asks them, "You only see the forest? You can't see the trees? You can't see in the rich forest that each tree is rotting?"
..."



ibm의 실적이 예상에 못 미치고, 향후 전망도 낙관적이지 않다.
그래서 주가는 급락을 했지만, 최근까지 경영진은 자사주 매입에 열중하고, 버핏은 ibm 투자에 만족한다고 한다.

미국 ibm에서 몇년에서 30년까지 근무한 직원들의 사기가 수십년 만에 최저라고 하고, 고객들의 만족도, 충성도도 떨어져간다고 하는데, 일부 투자자들은 더할 나위없이 좋은 투자기회라고 한다.

낙관적인 투자자들은 과거 직원들에게 나무(직원사기)만 보고 숲(영속기업의 일시적인 후퇴?)은 볼 줄 모른다고 한다.
어떤 직원들은 어떤게 숲(기업의 지속가능성)이고, 어떤게 나무(주당 순익)인지 반문한다.

그 와중에 '뿌리깊은 나무'가 등장한다.

90년대 미드 붐의 초기에 프렌즈를 열심히 봤던 기억이 있다.
또 종종 다운받은 미드를 보면서 날샌 적은 있다.
한국 드라마 중에 처음으로 3박4일 정주행하면서 폐인이 되도록 만들었던 것이 '뿌리깊은 나무'였고, 그 다음이 '응사'였다.

2000년대 한류 열풍 이후 아시아권에서 한류 붐이 일었고, 싸이 이후 한국가요가 전세계에 알려지기도 했다.
그러나 서양사람들이 한국 드라마를 보는 줄은 몰랐는데, 어떤 사람에게는 amazing한 모양이다.




The repurchase revolution
Companies have been gobbling up their own shares at an exceptional rate. There are good reasons to worry about this