2016년 2월 27일 토요일

china cpi estimate


중국의 소비자물가지수 자체는 공개되지 않는다.
공식발표는 yoy, mom이고 소수점 한자리까지이다.
fred, bok, www.stats.gov.cn에 없으니 아마 없을 것이다.

tradingeconomics와 한국은행에서는 중국 공식자료처럼 전년동월비에 100을 더한 값을 보여준다.
그러니 다른 나라의 값과 그냥 비교하면 틀린다.

oecd에서 추정하고 제공하는 cpi는 93년 이후의 값이고, oecd통계에서 제공하는 값을 fred에서도 제공한다.
이것으로 계산하면 중국공식물가와 mom은 오차가 없지만, yoy는 오차가 발생한다.
oecd의 값은 mom으로 역산한 것으로 추정된다.

그런데 mom으로 역산하면 계절조정을 한 값이 구해지고, yoy의 오차는 지속적이어야 하지만 09년 이후 차이가 커지고 이전에는 오차가 적다.

중국당국이 일정시기 이후에는 계절조정값을 기준으로 삼고, 그 이전에는 계절조정하지않은 값을 기준으로 삼았거나, 아니면 기준을 여러번 바꾸었거나.


중국통계의 미스테리를 얘기하고 싶은 것은 아니고, 물가지수를 알고 싶으면 발표된 yoy와 mom을 이용해서 역산을 해야하는데 소숫점 한자리로는 오차가 커서 계산하기 어렵기때문에 yoy 오차가 적었던 09년 전후의 oecd값을 기준삼아 전체를 역산했다.

장점은 yoy로 오차가 없다는 것과 87년부터 cpi의 값을 추정할 수 있어서 oced보다 6년 더 길게 볼 수 있다는 것이다. 당연히 mom 오차는 더 크다(이 숫자에는 관심이 없다).







oecd의 값으로 yoy를 계산하면 공식 통계와 차이가 난다.
mom은 차이가 없다.



그래서 yoy값을 기준으로 index를 재구성했다.
장기적으로 oecd값과 차이가 없다.

아마 oecd값은 계절조정값, 내가 계산한 값은 계절조정하지 않은 값과 비슷할 것으로 본다.




중국 공식통계값과 oecd값 비교.



중국 공식통계값과 추정치 비교.


아래는 cpi 추정치.




observation_date oecd china cpi rmr_cpi
1987-01-01   27.553880
1987-02-01   27.434902
1987-03-01   27.768951
1987-04-01   27.793076
1987-05-01   28.081441
1987-06-01   27.997303
1987-07-01   27.484709
1987-08-01   27.474068
1987-09-01   28.045984
1987-10-01   28.485635
1987-11-01   28.829056
1987-12-01   29.096357
1988-01-01   30.119146
1988-02-01   30.288132
1988-03-01   30.906843
1988-04-01   31.183832
1988-05-01   32.066198
1988-06-01   32.563663
1988-07-01   32.764521
1988-08-01   33.957947
1988-09-01   35.450124
1988-10-01   36.202393
1988-11-01   36.558126
1988-12-01   37.214241
1989-01-01   38.368781
1989-02-01   38.889961
1989-03-01   39.282597
1989-04-01   39.478731
1989-05-01   40.053888
1989-06-01   39.984922
1989-07-01   39.120838
1989-08-01   39.153513
1989-09-01   39.523343
1989-10-01   39.319419
1989-11-01   39.263428
1989-12-01   39.670381
1990-01-01   40.018638
1990-02-01   40.601119
1990-03-01   40.618206
1990-04-01   40.742050
1990-05-01   41.135343
1990-06-01   40.428754
1990-07-01   39.551167
1990-08-01   40.132351
1990-09-01   40.673472
1990-10-01   40.538321
1990-11-01   40.716174
1990-12-01   41.376207
1991-01-01   40.899048
1991-02-01   41.331939
1991-03-01   41.268097
1991-04-01   41.271697
1991-05-01   42.616215
1991-06-01   42.207620
1991-07-01   41.410072
1991-08-01   42.098836
1991-09-01   42.503779
1991-10-01   42.484161
1991-11-01   42.507686
1991-12-01   43.238137
1992-01-01   43.148496
1992-02-01   43.522532
1992-03-01   43.455306
1992-04-01   44.201987
1992-05-01   44.619177
1992-06-01   44.233585
1992-07-01   43.563396
1992-08-01   44.540569
1992-09-01   45.691562
1992-10-01   45.840409
1992-11-01   45.993316
1992-12-01   47.043093
1993-01-01 47.490768 47.592791
1993-02-01 47.759775 48.222966
1993-03-01 48.643749 48.756853
1993-04-01 50.049258 49.771438
1993-05-01 50.798545 50.865862
1993-06-01 50.728261 50.912857
1993-07-01 50.376782 50.620666
1993-08-01 51.456412 51.845222
1993-09-01 52.807154 52.865137
1993-10-01 53.190889 53.129034
1993-11-01 53.651946 53.674200
1993-12-01 55.273692 55.887194
1994-01-01 57.511321 57.634870
1994-02-01 58.840043 59.410694
1994-03-01 59.539949 59.678388
1994-04-01 60.909947 60.571840
1994-05-01 61.618635 61.700291
1994-06-01 62.192848 62.419162
1994-07-01 62.467210 62.769626
1994-08-01 64.732166 65.221290
1994-09-01 67.223507 67.297320
1994-10-01 67.924765 67.845777
1994-11-01 68.406231 68.434605
1994-12-01 69.368483 70.138429
1995-01-01 71.371549 71.524874
1995-02-01 72.020212 72.718689
1995-03-01 72.221958 72.389885
1995-04-01 73.518305 73.110211
1995-05-01 74.127218 74.225450
1995-06-01 73.511945 74.216384
1995-07-01 72.899234 73.252154
1995-08-01 74.118330 74.678377
1995-09-01 76.097010 76.180566
1995-10-01 76.143662 76.055116
1995-11-01 76.067730 76.099281
1995-12-01 76.374699 77.222410
1996-01-01 77.794988 77.962112
1996-02-01 78.718092 79.481527
1996-03-01 79.299710 79.484094
1996-04-01 80.649582 80.201901
1996-05-01 80.724540 80.831515
1996-06-01 79.833973 80.598993
1996-07-01 78.949871 79.332082
1996-08-01 80.121915 80.727325
1996-09-01 81.728189 81.817928
1996-10-01 81.473719 81.378974
1996-11-01 81.316403 81.350132
1996-12-01 81.720928 82.627979
1997-01-01 82.384893 82.561877
1997-02-01 83.126305 83.932493
1997-03-01 82.471699 82.663458
1997-04-01 83.230368 82.768362
1997-05-01 82.984827 83.094797
1997-06-01 82.069324 82.855765
1997-07-01 81.081517 81.474049
1997-08-01 81.644231 82.261144
1997-09-01 83.199296 83.290650
1997-10-01 82.695824 82.599659
1997-11-01 82.210884 82.244983
1997-12-01 82.047813 82.958491
1998-01-01 82.632047 82.809563
1998-02-01 83.043179 83.093168
1998-03-01 83.049001 83.242102
1998-04-01 82.980677 82.520057
1998-05-01 82.154979 82.263849
1998-06-01 81.002423 81.778640
1998-07-01 79.946376 80.333412
1998-08-01 80.501211 81.109488
1998-09-01 81.951307 82.041291
1998-10-01 81.786170 81.691062
1998-11-01 81.224353 81.258043
1998-12-01 81.227334 82.128906
1999-01-01 81.640463 81.815848
1999-02-01 81.963617 82.012956
1999-03-01 81.554118 81.743744
1999-04-01 81.155102 81.447296
1999-05-01 80.347570 80.454044
1999-06-01 79.301373 79.586972
1999-07-01 78.827126 79.208744
1999-08-01 79.454696 79.730627
1999-09-01 81.295696 81.384960
1999-10-01 81.295453 81.200916
1999-11-01 80.493333 80.526721
1999-12-01 80.415061 81.307617
2000-01-01 81.477181 81.652216
2000-02-01 82.537363 82.587047
2000-03-01 81.391011 81.580257
2000-04-01 80.911636 81.202954
2000-05-01 80.427917 80.534498
2000-06-01 79.697879 79.984907
2000-07-01 79.221262 79.604788
2000-08-01 79.693060 79.969819
2000-09-01 81.295696 81.384960
2000-10-01 81.295453 81.200916
2000-11-01 81.539747 81.573568
2000-12-01 81.621287 81.632847
2001-01-01 82.454908 82.632043
2001-02-01 82.537363 82.587047
2001-03-01 82.042139 82.232899
2001-04-01 82.206223 82.502201
2001-05-01 81.795191 81.903585
2001-06-01 80.813650 81.104696
2001-07-01 80.409581 80.798860
2001-08-01 80.489991 80.769517
2001-09-01 81.214401 81.303575
2001-10-01 81.458044 81.363318
2001-11-01 81.295127 81.328847
2001-12-01 81.376423 81.387949
2002-01-01 81.620552 81.805722
2002-02-01 82.518378 82.587047
2002-03-01 81.445640 81.575035
2002-04-01 81.201302 81.429673
2002-05-01 80.957698 81.002646
2002-06-01 80.229079 80.455858
2002-07-01 79.667476 80.071670
2002-08-01 79.906478 80.204130
2002-09-01 80.705543 80.734450
2002-10-01 80.866954 80.712411
2002-11-01 80.786087 80.759546
2002-12-01 81.028445 81.062397
2003-01-01 81.919758 82.132945
2003-02-01 82.657036 82.752221
2003-03-01 82.161094 82.309211
2003-04-01 81.996772 82.243970
2003-05-01 81.422794 81.569664
2003-06-01 80.445721 80.697226
2003-07-01 80.043492 80.472028
2003-08-01 80.603796 80.925968
2003-09-01 81.571042 81.622529
2003-10-01 82.305182 82.165235
2003-11-01 83.128233 83.182332
2003-12-01 83.627003 83.656394
2004-01-01 84.546900 84.761199
2004-02-01 84.377806 84.490018
2004-03-01 84.630940 84.778487
2004-04-01 85.054094 85.369240
2004-05-01 84.969040 85.158729
2004-06-01 84.374257 84.732087
2004-07-01 84.205508 84.737046
2004-08-01 84.794947 85.215044
2004-09-01 85.727691 85.866901
2004-10-01 85.727691 85.698340
2004-11-01 85.470508 85.511437
2004-12-01 85.555979 85.664147
2005-01-01 86.069315 86.371662
2005-02-01 87.618562 87.785129
2005-03-01 86.829995 87.067506
2005-04-01 86.569505 86.905887
2005-05-01 86.396366 86.691586
2005-06-01 85.705195 86.087800
2005-07-01 85.705195 86.262313
2005-08-01 85.876605 86.322839
2005-09-01 86.477741 86.639703
2005-10-01 86.823653 86.726720
2005-11-01 86.563182 86.623086
2005-12-01 86.909434 87.034773
2006-01-01 88.039257 88.012724
2006-02-01 88.479453 88.575195
2006-03-01 87.683138 87.764046
2006-04-01 87.858504 87.948757
2006-05-01 87.770646 87.905269
2006-06-01 87.331793 87.379117
2006-07-01 87.069798 87.124936
2006-08-01 87.331007 87.445036
2006-09-01 87.767662 87.939298
2006-10-01 87.855429 87.940894
2006-11-01 88.118996 88.268924
2006-12-01 89.352662 89.471747
2007-01-01 89.978131 89.949004
2007-02-01 90.877911 90.966725
2007-03-01 90.605278 90.660260
2007-04-01 90.514673 90.587220
2007-05-01 90.786217 90.894048
2007-06-01 91.149361 91.223799
2007-07-01 91.969705 92.003932
2007-08-01 93.073342 93.128964
2007-09-01 93.352562 93.391535
2007-10-01 93.632620 93.657052
2007-11-01 94.288048 94.359480
2007-12-01 95.230929 95.287411
2008-01-01 96.373700 96.335383
2008-02-01 98.879417 98.880830
2008-03-01 98.187260 98.185061
2008-04-01 98.285447 98.287134
2008-05-01 97.892306 97.892889
2008-06-01 97.696521 97.700688
2008-07-01 97.794218 97.800180
2008-08-01 97.696423 97.692283
2008-09-01 97.696423 97.687546
2008-10-01 97.403334 97.403334
2008-11-01 96.624108 96.624108
2008-12-01 96.430859 96.430859
2009-01-01 97.298737 97.298737
2009-02-01 97.298737 97.298737
2009-03-01 97.006841 97.006841
2009-04-01 96.812827 96.812827
2009-05-01 96.522389 96.522389
2009-06-01 96.039777 96.039777
2009-07-01 96.039777 96.039777
2009-08-01 96.519976 96.519976
2009-09-01 96.906045 96.906045
2009-10-01 96.811524 96.916317
2009-11-01 97.102857 97.203852
2009-12-01 98.073966 98.263046
2010-01-01 98.656632 98.758218
2010-02-01 99.846241 99.925803
2010-03-01 99.142187 99.335005
2010-04-01 99.344501 99.523586
2010-05-01 99.247390 99.514583
2010-06-01 98.648539 98.824930
2010-07-01 99.045076 99.209089
2010-08-01 99.635834 99.898175
2010-09-01 100.234685 100.394663
2010-10-01 100.938739 101.180635
2010-11-01 102.047423 102.161249
2010-12-01 102.557255 102.783146
2011-01-01 103.585013 103.597370
2011-02-01 104.823177 104.822167
2011-03-01 104.612770 104.699095
2011-04-01 104.717974 104.798336
2011-05-01 104.823177 104.987885
2011-06-01 105.138788 105.149726
2011-07-01 105.664805 105.657680
2011-08-01 105.980416 106.091862
2011-09-01 106.514526 106.518737
2011-10-01 106.619730 106.745570
2011-11-01 106.409323 106.452021
2011-12-01 106.724933 106.997255
2012-01-01 108.327264 108.259252
2012-02-01 108.213968 108.176476
2012-03-01 108.432467 108.468263
2012-04-01 108.327264 108.361479
2012-05-01 108.003561 108.137522
2012-06-01 107.356154 107.463020
2012-07-01 107.459497 107.559518
2012-08-01 108.100672 108.213699
2012-09-01 108.432467 108.542593
2012-10-01 108.319171 108.560245
2012-11-01 108.432467 108.581062
2012-12-01 109.298373 109.672186
2013-01-01 110.390872 110.424437
2013-02-01 111.604758 111.638124
2013-03-01 110.601279 110.746096
2013-04-01 110.819940 110.962155
2013-05-01 110.156187 110.408410
2013-06-01 110.156187 110.364521
2013-07-01 110.265113 110.463625
2013-08-01 110.819778 111.027255
2013-09-01 111.703002 111.907414
2013-10-01 111.815165 112.034173
2013-11-01 111.702921 111.838494
2013-12-01 112.038035 112.413991
2014-01-01 113.158372 113.185048
2014-02-01 113.724205 113.870886
2014-03-01 113.155539 113.404002
2014-04-01 112.816056 112.959474
2014-05-01 112.928866 113.168620
2014-06-01 112.818645 112.902905
2014-07-01 112.931941 113.004289
2014-08-01 113.158534 113.247800
2014-09-01 113.716922 113.697932
2014-10-01 113.720401 113.826720
2014-11-01 113.493000 113.404233
2014-12-01 113.830218 114.100201
2015-01-01 114.178199 114.090529
2015-02-01 115.545035 115.465078
2015-03-01 115.000000 114.991658
2015-04-01 114.700000 114.653866
2015-05-01 114.500000 114.526643
2015-06-01 114.500000 114.483546
2015-07-01 114.900000 114.812357
2015-08-01 115.500000 115.512756
2015-09-01 115.600000 115.517099
2015-10-01 115.200000 115.306467
2015-11-01 115.200000 115.105296
2015-12-01 115.800000 115.925804
2016-01-01 116.300000 116.144158