Friday, March 25, 2016

bp energy outlook to 2035


미래가 궁금하면 봐둘 만

http://www.businessinsider.com/bp-us-energy-self-sufficient-in-5-years-2016-3

http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook-2016/bp-energy-outlook-2016.pdf

1) energy  demand up: also world GDP
2) fossil fuels: 60%, gas up, coal down (china), renewables up
3) carbon emission limited increase

key issues
1) what drives energy demand?
2) the changing outlook for carbon emissions
3) what have we learned about us shales?
4) china's changing energy needs

key uncertainties
1) slower GDP growth
2) faster transition to lower-carbon world
3) shale oil and gas have even greater potential





energy demand ~ population, income

china, india - half of future growth




gdp당 에너지 사용량 감소 추세 지속, 특히 중국




셰일가스, 타이트오일 전망 상향 지속 중. 하향이 아니라!!!



재생에너지도 마찬가지로 상향 지속중. 하향이 아니라
비화석연료비중전망이 감소한 것은 핵발전과 바이오에너지때문
원가감소로 태양광의 성장은 의심의 여지가 없는 듯




베이스 전망치.


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