Saturday, April 16, 2016

china GDP - real, nominal, deflator




data:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201604/t20160416_1344514.html

중국의 GDP디플레이터에 대한 관심이 높아졌지만, 확인할 방법이 없어서 직접 계산.
중국 통계국 싸이트에는 15년 3분기까지만. 최근 숫자 전체, 실질 GDP 과거 숫자의 대부분, 디플레이터 수치 전체가 없어서 전에 cpi추정하듯이 역으로 계산 후 위키 수치와 비교. 대충 쓸만.


중국의 실질gdp수준을 의심하는 것보다는 고점대비 1/3로 감소한 명목gdp가 턴했다는 것과 2008년부터 지속된 디스인플레이션이 디플레이션을 거치고 끝나가고 있다는 것을 주목할 시기.


Chinese growth: 5 things to watch
3) GDP deflator. Many analysts suspect that China’s statistics bureau tinkers with the politically sensitive real GDP growth figure to ensure it meets the government target. The main tool for such tinkering is thought to be theGDP deflator, the broad measure of price changes used to convert between nominal and inflation-adjusted growth.

When the GDP deflator diverges sharply from more familiar measures of inflation, such as the consumer and producer price indices, suspicion of manipulation rises. The deflator was -0.73 per cent in the fourth quarter, the lowest since 2009. Both CPI and PPI ticked up in the first quarter, so if the deflator sinks further or even remains flat, it will be viewed as a sign of tinkering.



http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2016/04/china-cpi-pork-or-hog-cycle.html




http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2016/04/china-pmi-long-or-short-cycle.html





http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2016/04/ism-pmi-rebound-by-dollar-and-oil.html

http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2016/03/the-end-of-current-business-cycle.html

http://runmoneyrun.blogspot.kr/2016/02/china-cpi-estimate.html

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  nominal GDP real GDP deflator nominal yoy real yoy def yoy
92-03-01 523,480 1,377,042 38.015      
92-06-01 653,680 1,669,403 39.157      
92-09-01 712,250 1,836,219 38.789      
92-12-01 817,430 2,086,199 39.183      
93-03-01 680,310 1,589,106 42.811 29.96 15.40 12.62
93-06-01 841,620 1,893,103 44.457 28.75 13.40 13.54
93-09-01 930,530 2,074,927 44.846 30.65 13.00 15.62
93-12-01 1,099,970 2,382,439 46.170 34.56 14.20 17.83
94-03-01 933,780 1,814,759 51.455 37.26 14.20 20.19
94-06-01 1,156,690 2,144,885 53.928 37.44 13.30 21.30
94-09-01 1,276,450 2,348,817 54.344 37.17 13.20 21.18
94-12-01 1,479,040 2,673,097 55.331 34.46 12.20 19.84
95-03-01 1,206,590 2,032,530 59.364 29.22 12.00 15.37
95-06-01 1,472,780 2,378,678 61.916 27.33 10.90 14.81
95-09-01 1,603,530 2,595,443 61.783 25.62 10.50 13.69
95-12-01 1,830,070 2,961,791 61.789 23.73 10.80 11.67
96-03-01 1,457,260 2,254,076 64.650 20.78 10.90 8.90
96-06-01 1,728,620 2,602,273 66.427 17.37 9.40 7.29
96-09-01 1,845,790 2,836,820 65.065 15.11 9.30 5.31
96-12-01 2,125,560 3,266,855 65.064 16.15 10.30 5.30
97-03-01 1,662,260 2,481,738 66.980 14.07 10.10 3.60
97-06-01 1,929,840 2,862,501 67.418 11.64 10.00 1.49
97-09-01 2,033,860 3,080,786 66.018 10.19 8.60 1.46
97-12-01 2,316,980 3,547,805 65.307 9.01 8.60 0.37
98-03-01 1,797,670 2,660,423 67.571 8.15 7.20 0.88
98-06-01 2,042,790 3,060,013 66.758 5.85 6.90 (0.98)
98-09-01 2,160,670 3,321,087 65.059 6.23 7.80 (1.45)
98-12-01 2,487,230 3,870,655 64.259 7.35 9.10 (1.61)
99-03-01 1,927,450 2,894,540 66.589 7.22 8.80 (1.45)
99-06-01 2,168,370 3,298,694 65.734 6.15 7.80 (1.53)
99-09-01 2,286,510 3,573,490 63.985 5.82 7.60 (1.65)
99-12-01 2,636,440 4,129,989 63.836 6.00 6.70 (0.66)
00-03-01 2,121,550 3,143,470 67.491 10.07 8.60 1.35
00-06-01 2,412,880 3,595,577 67.107 11.28 9.00 2.09
00-09-01 2,549,190 3,887,957 65.566 11.49 8.80 2.47
00-12-01 2,894,010 4,439,738 65.184 9.77 7.50 2.11
01-03-01 2,395,030 3,438,956 69.644 12.89 9.40 3.19
01-06-01 2,679,580 3,901,201 68.686 11.05 8.50 2.35
01-09-01 2,808,620 4,198,994 66.888 10.18 8.00 2.02
01-12-01 3,143,810 4,777,158 65.809 8.63 7.60 0.96
02-03-01 2,613,290 3,741,585 69.844 9.11 8.80 0.29
02-06-01 2,924,560 4,240,605 68.966 9.14 8.70 0.41
02-09-01 3,097,140 4,602,097 67.298 10.27 9.60 0.61
02-12-01 3,465,210 5,211,880 66.487 10.22 9.10 1.03
03-03-01 2,963,110 4,153,159 71.346 13.39 11.00 2.15
03-06-01 3,256,300 4,626,500 70.384 11.34 9.10 2.06
03-09-01 3,496,840 5,062,307 69.076 12.91 10.00 2.64
03-12-01 3,940,220 5,733,068 68.728 13.71 10.00 3.37
04-03-01 3,429,060 4,589,241 74.720 15.73 10.50 4.73
04-06-01 3,871,310 5,158,548 75.047 18.89 11.50 6.62
04-09-01 4,143,580 5,558,413 74.546 18.49 9.80 7.92
04-12-01 4,627,490 6,237,578 74.187 17.44 8.80 7.94
05-03-01 4,013,090 5,094,057 78.780 17.03 11.00 5.43
05-06-01 4,474,820 5,725,988 78.149 15.59 11.00 4.13
05-09-01 4,755,020 6,158,721 77.208 14.76 10.80 3.57
05-12-01 5,346,650 7,011,037 76.260 15.54 12.40 2.79
06-03-01 4,667,830 5,730,814 81.451 16.32 12.50 3.39
06-06-01 5,256,040 6,504,722 80.803 17.46 13.60 3.40
06-09-01 5,546,780 6,910,085 80.271 16.65 12.20 3.97
06-12-01 6,295,010 7,887,417 79.811 17.74 12.50 4.66
07-03-01 5,668,660 6,521,667 86.920 21.44 13.80 6.71
07-06-01 6,464,890 7,473,926 86.499 23.00 14.90 7.05
07-09-01 6,878,950 7,891,317 87.171 24.02 14.20 8.60
07-12-01 7,789,430 8,983,768 86.706 23.74 13.90 8.64
08-03-01 6,877,840 7,271,658 94.584 21.33 11.50 8.82
08-06-01 7,853,760 8,288,584 94.754 21.48 10.90 9.54
08-09-01 8,161,950 8,648,884 94.370 18.65 9.60 8.26
08-12-01 8,781,630 9,621,616 91.270 12.74 7.10 5.26
09-03-01 7,328,360 7,722,501 94.896 6.55 6.20 0.33
09-06-01 8,361,420 8,951,671 93.406 6.46 8.00 (1.42)
09-09-01 8,892,350 9,548,368 93.130 8.95 10.40 (1.31)
09-12-01 9,980,800 10,747,345 92.868 13.66 11.70 1.75
10-03-01 8,668,430 8,664,646 100.044 18.29 12.20 5.42
10-06-01 9,905,980 9,909,500 99.964 18.47 10.70 7.02
10-09-01 10,495,060 10,493,656 100.013 18.02 9.90 7.39
10-12-01 11,820,820 11,822,079 99.989 18.44 10.00 7.67
11-03-01 10,345,690 9,548,440 108.350 19.35 10.20 8.30
11-06-01 11,846,500 10,890,540 108.778 19.59 9.90 8.82
11-09-01 12,527,930 11,480,060 109.128 19.37 9.40 9.11
11-12-01 13,692,230 12,850,600 106.549 15.83 8.70 6.56
12-03-01 11,614,790 10,311,940 112.634 12.27 8.00 3.95
12-06-01 13,076,580 11,709,710 111.673 10.38 7.52 2.66
12-09-01 13,672,290 12,333,630 110.854 9.13 7.44 1.58
12-12-01 15,048,640 13,882,920 108.397 9.91 8.03 1.73
13-03-01 12,808,350 11,112,830 115.257 10.28 7.77 2.33
13-06-01 14,303,180 12,583,250 113.668 9.38 7.46 1.79
13-09-01 15,071,980 13,304,580 113.284 10.24 7.87 2.19
13-12-01 16,618,360 14,944,800 111.198 10.43 7.65 2.58
14-03-01 13,873,800 11,922,610 116.365 8.32 7.29 0.96
14-06-01 15,520,100 13,508,920 114.888 8.51 7.36 1.07
14-09-01 16,346,700 14,261,850 114.618 8.46 7.20 1.18
14-12-01 17,873,280 16,028,260 111.511 7.55 7.25 0.28
15-03-01 14,796,180 12,758,610 115.970 6.65 7.01 (0.34)
15-06-01 16,621,640 14,447,820 115.046 7.10 6.95 0.14
15-09-01 17,359,500 15,239,070 113.914 6.20 6.85 (0.61)
15-12-01 18,937,200 17,118,182 110.626 5.95 6.80 (0.79)
16-03-01 15,852,600 13,613,437 116.448 7.14 6.70 0.41
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